Hezbollah and Israel have intensified attacks, each accusing the other of breaking the ceasefire. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market sits at 100% YES, a number that contradicts the deteriorating situation on the ground.
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market holds at 100% YES, but ongoing military actions suggest traders may reconsider this certainty soon. The suspension of Lebanon offensive market is also at 100% YES, despite no de-escalation on the ground.
The odds imply traders expect a diplomatic breakthrough or significant de-escalation, though neither appears imminent. Term structures for Israel’s suspension of Lebanon offensive show no movement across dates, meaning traders expect some form of resolution but aren’t pricing in specifics.
Both markets report $0 in 24-hour face value, which points to no active trading. The absence of significant trades means these odds may not reflect the impact of recent news. At 100¢, traders are betting on a ceasefire holding, a bet that could unravel fast if hostilities persist. Any shift, whether an official statement from Netanyahu or a significant IDF operation, could move these markets quickly.
Watch for Netanyahu’s public statements and IDF military updates as the most direct signals of either de-escalation or further engagement.
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Will Trump Endorse An Israeli Ceasefire In Lebanon April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
