Hezbollah MP Ibrahim Al-Mousawi admitted on March 1, 2026, that the group entered the war deliberately, a statement that could dampen prospects for a near-term ceasefire. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is at 93.7% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
Al-Mousawi’s statement points to ongoing hostilities, which sits awkwardly against the current high odds for a ceasefire by April 30. The June 30 market is at 96.6% YES, with longer-term confidence in resolution likely pricing in more complex negotiations. The market for Israel suspending operations by April 30 sits at 96.2% YES, which may overestimate the speed of any diplomatic outcome.
Daily USDC volume runs at $1,041,878 for the April 30 ceasefire market and $63,030 for the suspension of Lebanon offensive market. The largest recent move was a 13-point spike for the April 30 ceasefire, possibly driven by speculative optimism.
Why it matters
Hezbollah’s calculated entry complicates the ceasefire picture. Al-Mousawi’s comments describe a strategic extension of conflict, not reactionary aggression. Traders banking on a quick resolution may find their positions overvalued unless concrete steps toward peace emerge. A YES share at 94¢ returns a 1.06x payout if resolved, but that requires belief in rapid de-escalation.
What to watch
Statements from Netanyahu or the IDF, along with any mediating efforts by the US or Pakistan. A joint communiqué or confirmed Hezbollah disarmament would provide more solid footing for these high odds.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
