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Here’s why Stellar’s (XLM) price action may be at the risk of a 28% drop

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XLM’s price action is in a tricky spot right now.

Posted: March 1, 2026 Avatar

By: Chandan Gupta Journalist Edited By: Jibin Mathew George Here's why Stellar's (XLM) price action may be at the risk of a 28% drop

Chandan Gupta Journalist Edited By: Jibin Mathew George Posted: March 1, 2026 Share this article

As tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, the broader crypto market has come under significant pressure. Amid this uncertainty, Stellar (XLM) seems to be opening the door for further downside momentum.

However, XLM is not being driven by geopolitical tensions alone. Instead, they’ve been accompanied by the formation of a bearish price pattern on the chart.

On 28 February, XLM fell by over 9.95% in just 24 hours, with the altcoin valued at $0.1486 on the charts. Despite the price drop though, trader and investor participation increased notably. This was reflected in the trading volume which jumped by 17% to $125.89 million.

XLM price action and key levels to watch

Despite market uncertainty, popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently shared a post on X highlighting key support levels for XLM. In the post, the expert noted that $0.147, $0.078, and $0.041 are key levels for the altcoin.

Source: X/alicharts

Additionallt, if we look at the daily chart, it would seem that XLM’s price has formed a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern below the key support level of $0.158.

Based on the price action, if XLM’s downside momentum continues and it closes a daily candle below the $0.145-level, it could see a further price decline of 28% and may reach the $0.105-level in the coming days.

However, XLM’s bearish thesis would only be validated if it closes below the $0.145-level. Otherwise, it would be invalidated.

Source: TradingView

At press time, the Average Directional Index (ADX), an indicator that measures the strength of a trend, had hit 30.40.

It was above the key threshold of 25 – Indicative of strong momentum in the altcoin’s market.

Derivatives tool flashes mixed sentiments

A look at the market structure also suggested that long-term holders may be seizing this dip as an opportunity. Short-term participants may be following the market trend by betting heavily on short positions too.

According to the derivatives tool Coinglass, intraday traders are strongly betting on $0.149 on the lower side (support) and $0.1619 on the upper side (resistance). They have built $296k worth of long-leveraged positions and $1.49 million worth of short-leveraged positions.

These bets revealed that traders with a bearish view are dominating the current market, believing that XLM’s price will not cross the $0.1619-level anytime soon.

Source: Coinglass

On the other hand, the XLM spot inflow/outflow metric found that a modest $319.79k worth of the asset flowed out of exchanges over the last 24 hours – A sign of potential accumulation.

Source: Coinglass

When combining these metrics, it would seem that XLM is bearish in the short term. In the long term though, an ideal buying opportunity could be on the horizon.

Final Summary

Stellar (XLM) is poised for a massive downside move because of escalating geopolitical tensions and formation of a bearish price pattern.
XLM could fall another 28% if it fails to hold the $0.145-support level.

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Chandan Gupta

Chandan Gupta is is a seasoned crypto analyst with over four years of experience in market research and trading. He specializes in simplifying complex on-chain data to uncover the strategies of crypto whales and major market participants. Alongside on-chain analysis, he breaks down price charts and liquidity movements to deliver clear, actionable insights. More Articles