Haaretz detailed alleged atrocities by Israeli soldiers in Gaza, including abuse of detainees and killing unarmed civilians. Netanyahu’s potential exit by June 30 sits at 5.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday.
The report could add pressure on Netanyahu, with direct implications for the Netanyahu out by June 30 market. April 30 odds are at 0.6% YES. With only 12 days until April 30, traders are clearly skeptical about a sudden exit. The term structure shows a +5 point spread from April 30 to June 30, meaning traders expect any real shift to take longer.
Combined 24h face value is $78,323, but only $1,011 in actual USDC changed hands. To move odds 5 points, it takes $10,283 for the June 30 market, compared to just $1,828 for the April contract, which has a much thinner order book.
The Haaretz report adds pressure but doesn’t point to an immediate political crisis. Previous coverage from @MarioNawfal also flagged domestic unrest, but without a decisive trigger, Netanyahu’s position looks stable in the near term. At 5.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if Netanyahu exits by June 30, a 18.2x return. This bet requires significant political turmoil or coalition fractures within 73 days.
Watch for formal government action, coalition partner statements, or international pressure that could move this market. Netanyahu’s next public appearance may signal whether his coalition position has weakened.
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Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
