The Strait of Hormuz closure has Gulf countries scrambling for alternative oil export routes. The market on traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 59.5% YES, down from 60% a day ago.
Market reaction
With Iran tightening its grip, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq are using pipelines and overland routes to bypass the Strait. Kuwait and Qatar remain stuck, lacking viable alternatives. The April 30 market dropped roughly 10 points in a day, with traders pricing in doubt about a quick resolution. The May 31 market is stable at 82% YES, meaning traders still expect resolution on a longer timeline.
Why it matters
The market traded $32,234 in USDC over the past 24 hours, with only $354 in depth to move prices by 5 points. A 4-point drop hit at 6:46 PM as traders recalibrated expectations for April’s resolution. That thin order book means small trades can move the price fast, and the market is highly reactive to any geopolitical news.
What to watch
At 51¢ per share for April 30, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, a 1.98x return. To justify buying, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough happens within 14 days. Without clear diplomatic signals, that’s a hard case to make. Watch for announcements from IRGC or CENTCOM, and any diplomatic moves between the US and Iran. Either easing tensions or escalated military intervention could move these odds sharply.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
