Google is reportedly in talks with Marvell to develop custom AI chips, a move that could challenge Nvidia’s position in AI hardware. The odds of Nvidia being the largest company by market cap on June 30 sit at 86.5% YES.
The market hasn’t moved much on this news. The June 30 market is at 86.5% YES, steady after a 4-point spike to 90% yesterday. Google’s push for custom inference chips with Marvell could eventually cut into Nvidia’s hardware revenue, but traders aren’t pricing that in yet. The December 31 market remains at 0.8% YES, showing little belief in a dramatic shift this year.
Google building its own inference chips with Marvell is a real competitive threat to Nvidia’s hardware business, but the current odds say traders still trust Nvidia’s near-term position. USDC trading volume is $6,703/day. It takes $9,363 to move the June market 5 points, which suggests solid institutional backing behind the YES side.
At 86¢, buying YES pays a 1.16x return if Nvidia holds the top spot. That confidence is already priced in. To profit from NO, you’d need to believe Google’s chip strategy will materially erode Nvidia’s market cap within weeks.
Watch for concrete timelines on Google’s chip development and any Nvidia regulatory issues. A major announcement from either company could shift these odds quickly.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 88% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
