Goldman Sachs pushes Fed rate-cut forecast to 2027 on strong jobs data
A blowout May jobs report has Goldman's economists shelving any hope of rate relief this year, with implications rippling across crypto and traditional markets alike.
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Add us on Google by Editorial Team Jun. 9, 2026Goldman Sachs has officially moved the goalposts on Federal Reserve rate cuts. The bank now expects the first reduction won’t arrive until June 2027, a meaningful delay from its prior call of December 2026.
The catalyst: a May 2026 jobs report that made a mockery of Wall Street expectations. Nonfarm payrolls came in at 172,000, roughly double the consensus estimate of 80,000 to 89,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%.
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David Mericle, Goldman’s chief US economist, laid out the revised timeline. The bank now expects two 25 basis point cuts in 2027, one in June and another in December. That’s a combined 50 basis points of easing, but not until next year at the earliest.
Previously, Goldman had penciled in cuts for December 2026 and March 2027. The new forecast effectively wipes 2026 clean of any monetary policy relief.
Goldman also doubled its estimated probability of rate hikes, bumping it from 10% to 20%. The terminal rate forecast remains at 3.0% to 3.25%. The current Fed policy rate sits in the 3.50% to 3.75% range, where it has been parked since the last round of cuts in late 2025.
Goldman isn’t alone in this view
Nomura had already signaled expectations of no Fed cuts through 2026, even before the May jobs data landed.
What this means for crypto and risk assets
The risk scenario is the one Goldman assigned a 20% probability: actual rate hikes. If the Fed were to move rates above 3.75%, that would tighten financial conditions and likely pull capital out of speculative assets.
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