The Gulf Cooperation Council and United Nations have called for an immediate halt to hostilities in the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Market odds for an April ceasefire remain low. The April 7 market is at 1% YES. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, down from 26% a week ago. Traders doubt these discussions will lead to an immediate ceasefire.
The April 30 market is at 20% YES, showing some optimism but still cautious. A 19-point jump in odds is expected between April 30 and May 31, indicating traders anticipate a significant event during this period.
Volume is strong, with $438,085 in USDC traded across all sub-markets in the last 24 hours. The April 15 market needs over $50K to shift by 5 points, showing solid order book depth. The April 7 market is more prone to swings.
The GCC-UN dialogue is a diplomatic gesture, not a game-changer. With the ceasefire by April 7 priced at 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved — a 100x return. But a breakthrough is needed in the next four days for that bet to be viable. Traders are pricing the odds accurately, given the lack of concrete developments.
Watch for any announcements from Oman or Qatar regarding mediation efforts. These could be the catalysts that change the current outlook.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.4% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 19.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 19.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
