French Defence Minister Catherine Vautrin announced that European countries, including France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, have mine-clearing and escort capabilities to ensure safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 56.0% YES, down from 60% just 24 hours ago.
The Strait of Hormuz market for an April 30 resolution dropped nearly 10 points in a day to 56.0%, suggesting traders read European involvement as a sign the situation won’t resolve quickly through U.S. action alone. The May 31 sub-market remains at 82% YES, meaning traders see a longer timeline for resolution as far more likely.
In the UK warship deployment market, odds of UK warships entering the Strait by April 30 are at 5.5%. This market hasn’t moved much, pointing to skepticism about immediate UK involvement even after Vautrin’s announcement about European capabilities.
The Strait of Hormuz market traded $32,234 in USDC over the last 24 hours, with $354 required to move the price by 5 percentage points. The largest single move was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM, coinciding with the European involvement news but not enough to break the market out of its near-coin-flip range.
France’s statement describes a non-offensive approach focused on humanitarian navigation, which may reduce immediate tensions but falls short of a full military commitment. Buying YES at 56.0¢ pays $1 if normal traffic resumes by April 30, a 1.98x return. That bet requires believing in a European-led de-escalation within roughly two weeks.
Watch for operational changes from European navies or diplomatic signals from Iran. Confirmed allied naval transits or de-escalation agreements would be the clearest catalysts for a move in either direction.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 56% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 83% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
