Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, former Israeli prime ministers, have announced their parties’ merger to challenge Benjamin Netanyahu in the upcoming elections. Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 is at 5.5% YES.
Market reaction
The announcement moved markets betting on Netanyahu’s political future. The June 30 contract ticked up slightly but remains at 5.5% YES. The April 30 contract sits at 0.2% YES, meaning traders see almost no chance of an immediate change.
Why it matters
The 5-point spread between the April 30 and June 30 contracts is the biggest term structure shift across these markets, suggesting traders see mid-2026 as the earliest window for political disruption. With 67 days remaining on the June 30 contract, the odds are still low, but the Bennett-Lapid merger creates the first unified opposition bloc since Netanyahu’s current government formed.
Combined 24-hour volume across these contracts is $79,019 face value, with $1,762 in actual USDC traded. Order book depth is $9,495 to move the June 30 market 5 points, so relatively thin liquidity means a moderate trade could shift odds noticeably. The largest move in the last 24 hours was a 1-point drop at 12:00 AM.
What to watch
A YES share at 5.5¢ pays $1 if Netanyahu exits by June 30, a 18x return. That payout only makes sense if you assign meaningfully higher than 5.5% probability to a departure. The specific triggers to monitor: Knesset no-confidence votes, coalition partners breaking ranks, Israeli Supreme Court rulings, and any legal developments in Netanyahu’s ongoing cases. Any of these could move the June 30 contract sharply given the thin order book.
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Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 15.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
