Flights have resumed in northern Israel, with Air Haifa, Bluebird, and Etihad back in service. The market predicting Israel announces suspension of its Lebanon offensive by April 30 sits at 100% YES.
Market reaction
The Lebanon offensive suspension market is fully priced at 100% YES, with 7 days remaining. Traders treat the flight resumptions as confirmation that the ceasefire is holding. No volume has been reported in these markets recently, suggesting the ceasefire was already priced in. Explore the market.
Markets tied to Netanyahu’s tenure show no movement. Odds of him being out by April 30 remain at 0.6% YES. The June 30 contract holds at 6% YES. Resumed flights have had no visible effect on his political position. Check the market.
Why it matters
The term structure across all Lebanon offensive markets is flat at 100% YES, pointing to a broad expectation that de-escalation will hold. Commercial flights returning to northern Israel are a concrete signal: airlines and insurers have assessed the security environment and judged it acceptable.
What to watch
At 100% YES, the Lebanon offensive market offers no upside. The more interesting trades are in adjacent geopolitical contracts, where an unexpected escalation could move odds quickly. Statements from the IDF or Netanyahu about military operations would be the most likely catalyst for any shift.
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Netanyahu Out Before 2027| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 0.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
