The first loaded LNG tanker has cleared the Strait of Hormuz, with a crude supertanker now attempting exit. The WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April market is reacting with odds trending lower as blockade fears ease.
Market reaction
Reduced fear of supply disruptions is pushing odds down on the $160 WTI contract. Donald Trump and OPEC+ leaders remain key actors whose decisions could shift sentiment further. The tanker movements through Hormuz counter previous fears that had driven prices up.
The US Navy escort market holds steady at 50% YES with no movement. Traders aren’t reading this as a broader military de-escalation. The market remains thin: $1,276 in actual USDC traded, a small sum compared to its face value volume.
Why it matters
The crude oil market shows no new trades in 24 hours, suggesting traders are still processing the tanker movements. Order book depth is low — it takes just $732 to move the market 5 points, leaving it vulnerable to sudden swings. The tanker passage through Hormuz eases supply constraints and reduces upward pressure on prices.
What to watch
Further strait passages and any OPEC+ announcements. Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman’s statements could shift market expectations. US Department of Energy updates may also affect the supply picture. A YES share at current odds offers large returns if oil spikes, but the probability of hitting $160 is declining.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 50% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99% | — | — | Trade → |
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