Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller has called for operational reforms at the Fed. The market for a Fed “Cut–Pause–Pause” sequence by June sits at 15% YES, down from 30% yesterday.
Waller’s reform push comes amid speculation about his potential to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. The drop from 30% to 15% suggests traders are pricing in a more hawkish stance, reducing the expected likelihood of rate cuts. The Fed Decisions from March to June market tracks this directly. March CPI or core PCE readings below 2.5% YoY could reverse the move, but that looks unlikely with rising geopolitical tensions.
Trading volume shows no activity in the last 24 hours. Thin order books mean small orders can move prices significantly, so a single large order or a Powell statement could shift the market fast. The 15-point drop implies traders are less confident in a dovish Fed pivot given current geopolitical and economic conditions.
Waller’s push for operational reforms may signal a shift toward more stringent policies. At 15¢, buying YES shares pays $1 if the Fed cuts rates by June, a 6.6x return. That bet requires a dovish pivot, which looks unlikely without major economic data shifts or geopolitical resolutions.
Watch the FOMC’s April 28–29 meeting and any statements from Powell on monetary policy direction. Waller’s potential nomination as Fed Chair could also move these odds.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit On April 20| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 20 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2.1% | — | — | Trade → |
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