Eyal Zamir, Dan Caine, and Brad Cooper have been executing military strategies against Iran. The odds of Iran striking Israel by April 30 sit at 100% YES.
Market reaction
Phase one of the operation has already weakened Iran’s defenses significantly, with Israeli and US military leaders coordinating the campaign. The market for Iran striking Israel by April 30 holds at 100%, meaning traders treat retaliation as a certainty.
Markets predicting UK or other countries’ military action against Iran by April 30 sit at 2% YES. These markets show no movement, and traders are skeptical about coalition strikes beyond the US and Israel. The $79 required to move the odds by 5 points points to a thin market easily swayed by small trades.
Why it matters
The leadership vacuum in Iran following the decapitation strike creates potential instability. The probability of Iran lacking a head of state by year’s end could rise given current military pressures and internal chaos. At current odds, traders betting on Iranian instability stand to see large returns if the situation deteriorates further.
What to watch
Official statements from Iranian leadership or shifts in US and Israeli military tactics. New strategic moves or diplomatic engagements could move these markets.
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Which Countries Will Conduct Military Action Against Iran April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
