ExxonMobil warns crude oil could surge to $160 per barrel as global inventories hit critical lows

Senior VP Neil Chapman says models show Brent crude spiking to $150-$160 if inventory floors are breached, with ripple effects likely across crypto and risk assets.

Share

Add us on Google by Editorial Team May. 30, 2026

ExxonMobil’s senior vice president Neil Chapman told investors at the Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference that crude oil prices could rocket to $160 per barrel. The culprit: global oil inventories approaching what he described as unprecedented lows, driven by the largest supply disruption in recorded history.

Brent crude currently trades around $91 to $92. Chapman’s models suggest that if operational inventory floors are breached, prices could jump to somewhere between $150 and $160.

The supply crisis nobody can ignore

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, has been effectively blocked amid escalating tensions with Iran. The International Energy Agency has characterized the resulting disruption as the largest supply shut-in in history, with more than 1 billion barrels removed from global markets.

Advertisement

Chapman isn’t alone in sounding the alarm. Chevron executives at the same conference offered their own forecasts, projecting oil prices could reach $140 to $160 per barrel.

The current price levels around $90 to $110 have been propped up by a combination of inventory drawdowns and strategic petroleum reserve releases. Chapman’s warning centers on the uncomfortable reality that these stopgap measures have a shelf life. SPR releases can’t continue indefinitely, and when that backstop disappears, the gap between supply and demand gets filled by price, not barrels.

Why crypto investors should be paying attention

When oil prices spike, the cost of transporting goods, manufacturing products, and generating electricity all climb in lockstep. Central banks that were starting to feel comfortable about inflation trajectories would suddenly face a new wave of price pressures. That changes the calculus on interest rate cuts, which changes the liquidity environment, which changes the risk appetite for assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

A $60-plus jump in oil prices from current levels to Chapman’s projected ceiling would represent one of the sharpest moves in crude oil history. The last time oil approached $150 was in 2008, right before the global financial crisis cratered everything.

What investors should watch from here

Chapman indicated this scenario could unfold in the coming weeks, not months. If Brent moves from $92 to $150 in a matter of weeks, the cascading effects on equity markets, bond yields, and crypto assets would be rapid.

The key variable is inventory levels. As long as operational floors hold, the current price range can persist. But Chapman’s entire thesis rests on the idea that those floors are about to break.

For crypto traders specifically, the signal to watch is how central banks respond. A sustained oil price shock that reignites inflation fears would likely delay or reverse any dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve. Tighter monetary policy means less liquidity, and crypto has historically been one of the first asset classes to feel that squeeze.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.