Explosions occurred near a Revolutionary Guard base in southwestern Iran, pushing the odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14% YES, up from 10% yesterday.
Traders reacted cautiously to the news. The regime fall market saw a slight increase, with odds at 14%. The April 30 market for US forces entering Iran holds steady at 66% YES after a turbulent week.
The regime fall market traded $54,158 in USDC over the past day. It requires $165,330 to shift this market by 5 percentage points, indicating strong resistance. A 1-point rise at 1:39 AM suggests some interest, but not a major sentiment change.
For traders, the explosion is a minor factor. Without major regime instability or military setbacks, betting on regime change remains speculative. A YES share at 14¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30. Buyers need confidence in a significant odds increase in the next 89 days.
Key indicators to watch include IRGC leadership changes, unexpected Assembly of Experts meetings, or key Iranian figures disappearing. These could impact markets more than isolated explosions.
Markets Impacted
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? — currently 13.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by March 31? — currently 0.1% YES
- US forces enter Iran by April 30? — currently 65.5% YES
- US forces enter Iran by December 31? — currently 74.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Related to This Story ▼ Trump’s efforts to end Iran conflict see ceasefire odds drop to 23.5% by April 30
