The EU plans to expand sanctions against Iran targeting those obstructing the Strait of Hormuz. Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for oil sanction relief by April 30 is at 12% YES, while Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 sits at 34.4% YES.
The EU’s move adds pressure to already strained US-Iran relations. The Trump Iran Demands market is bearish, with the new sanctions making any relief by April 30 less likely. The Iran Uranium Enrichment Agreement market dropped from 50% a day ago to 34.4% YES, a sharp move reflecting growing skepticism about a nuclear deal.
The Trump Iran Demands market shows a face value of $0, with essentially no trader activity. The Iran Enrichment Agreement market is more active at $34,430 in USDC traded, but it only takes $74 to move the odds by 5 points, which means thin liquidity and room for sharp swings.
The EU sanctions threat makes Iran less likely to concede on either the Strait of Hormuz or uranium enrichment. At 28¢, a YES share for the uranium enrichment cessation pays $1, a potential 3.57x return, but that requires a diplomatic breakthrough within the next 12 days.
Watch for further EU announcements and shifts in US diplomatic posture. Statements from Trump, JD Vance, or Karoline Leavitt could move these markets quickly.
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Trump Announces Us Blockade Of Hormuz Lifted| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 34.4% | — | — | Trade → |
