EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and continued mediation during the US-Iran ceasefire. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
## Market reaction
The sub-markets for ceasefire dates all show 100% YES. The April 15 market had the largest move, a 24-point spike driven by the conditional two-week ceasefire announced by President Trump. The April 30 and later dates also hit 100%, meaning traders expect the ceasefire to hold and formal announcements to follow.
## Why it matters
Trading volume at $5,188,952 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The largest observed move was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM for the April 15 market. Depth of $1,385,525/day in USDC for April 15 makes this a thick, institutional-grade market.
Kallas’s statement is a diplomatic signal consistent with the ceasefire-bullish sentiment. The EU’s call for mediation supports the ceasefire’s probability, with the Strait of Hormuz reopening as a key factor. At current levels, any new military escalation or diplomatic setbacks would need to be severe to move odds that are already at 100%.
## What to watch
Look for concrete signs of mediation progress, particularly Oman or Qatar acting as intermediaries, or shifts in rhetoric from Trump or IRGC leadership. President Trump’s scheduled talks on April 10 could move sentiment on whether the ceasefire extends beyond the initial two-week window.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
