Ethereum selloff exhausted, cyclical turn imminent on cost‑basis data — Fundstrat CIO
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Ethereum (ETH) may be nearing the end of its latest crypto “winter,” with Fundstrat’s Tom Lee telling a Hong Kong audience that on‑chain cost‑basis metrics and historical market analogs suggest the selloff has reached exhaustion and a cyclical turn is now imminent.
Speaking at the 3rd Futu Expo 2026 in Hong Kong, Lee pointed to work by Bitmine advisor Tom DeMark, who is known for his timing models in equities.
DeMark reportedly found a “striking resemblance” between Ethereum’s recent price action and two major S&P 500 downturns: the 1987 crash and the 2011 selloff.
“In both cases, those were major declines in the S&P,” Lee said. “If you were involved in US markets at the time, those were very painful episodes. Well, according to him, there’s a 93% correlation between what Ethereum’s doing today and what the S&P did in 1987.”
If the 1987 pattern holds, DeMark’s analysis suggests Ethereum had already bottomed by March 7; under the 2011 analog, the market is bottoming now. Either way, Lee’s conclusion was unambiguous: “So using his analysis, we think we’re at the bottom or exiting the crypto winter now.”
Beyond chart symmetry, Lee leaned heavily on Ethereum’s realized price, an on‑chain metric that estimates the average acquisition cost of coins based on when they last moved on the blockchain. At the time of his remarks, that figure stood at about $2,241 for ETH, which Lee said puts current holders roughly 22% underwater.
“In 2022, Ethereum fell to a 39% discount to realized price,” Lee explained. “In 2025, the discount reached 21% before ETH turned higher. Currently, we’re at 22%. So we’re at the level where in 2025, Ethereum started to turn higher.”
In other words, Lee argued, Ethereum does not need a perfect macro backdrop or a fresh narrative wave to stabilize; it simply needs to revisit the kind of holder pain that, in prior cycles, has marked the exhaustion of selling. By that measure, the threshold is already met.
To underline the asset’s long‑term resilience, he also cited performance over the past decade. “Before you lose any hope, keep in mind that over the last 10 years, Ethereum has outperformed every other asset class over the past decade,” Lee said. “In the last 10 years, Ethereum’s return is 49,000%. That means almost 490 times your money.”
By comparison, he noted Bitcoin had returned about 11,000% over the same stretch, and even Nvidia, which he called “the single best stock in the US,” had delivered roughly 65 times investors’ money.
Lee’s remarks come as ether traded around $2,147 on Monday morning, broadly aligned with the realized‑price zone he highlighted. Whether the S&P‑style analogs fully play out remains to be seen, but his message to investors was clear: Ethereum’s latest selloff may be nearing its end, and the next phase of the cycle could be closer than it appears.
