Energy infrastructures targeted in Iran war strikes heighten conflict

By Estefano Gomez · Published April 2, 2026 · 2 min read · Source: Crypto Briefing

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

Energy infrastructures in the Middle East are under attack as part of a US-Israeli military campaign against Iran. Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Escalating military actions have dampened hopes for a quick ceasefire. The April 7 sub-market is now at 8% YES, after a 2-point drop. The April 15 market fell to 18% YES. The April 30 market saw the biggest drop, now at 38% YES, indicating traders expect escalation to continue through mid-April.

With over $1.3M in USDC traded across these markets, liquidity suggests strong trader conviction. However, $15K can move the April 7 market 5 points, showing a single large order can still swing the odds. The largest single move was a 4-point spike for April 30 at 10:56 AM, likely due to a significant order.

Strikes on civilian energy infrastructure signal high escalation, shifting focus from military targets to economic disruption. For traders, the probability of a ceasefire is low without major diplomatic changes. A YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if successful, offering a 12.5x return, but the odds are slim. Major changes like resumed talks or intermediary negotiations are needed to alter these odds.

Watch for statements from CENTCOM or moves by intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any softening in rhetoric or confirmation of talks could impact these odds.

Markets Impacted

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES

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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
April 7	8.5%	—	—	Trade →
April 15	18.5%	—	—	Trade →
April 30	38.5%	—	—	Trade →
May 31	55.5%	—	—	Trade →
June 30	62.5%	—	—	Trade →
December 31	73.5%	—	—	Trade →

Source

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