Egypt’s foreign minister plans to meet with Putin to discuss the Iran war, suggesting possible mediation. Ceasefire odds by April 30 are at 38.5% YES, up from 36% yesterday.
Traders view the Egyptian-Russian meeting as a sign of diplomatic progress. The April 30 sub-market saw a 4-point rise, indicating increased optimism. The May 31 market also rose to 55.5% YES, suggesting traders see potential for a breakthrough within two months. The April 7 and April 15 markets remain low, as an immediate resolution seems unlikely.
The market trades $1.4M/day in USDC across all sub-markets, with most liquidity around April 30 and May 31. The April 30 odds jumped most, showing high trader interest. It costs $16,655 to move this market 5 points, indicating moderate depth. The largest single move was a 4-point spike at 10:56 AM, likely from a large order.
Egypt’s involvement with Russia adds complexity to the diplomatic scene. If they broker talks, ceasefire odds could rise significantly. A YES share at 38.5¢ for an April 30 ceasefire pays $1 — a 2.6x return if successful. This requires belief in imminent diplomatic efforts.
Watch for statements from Egypt or Russia about a scheduled meeting or intermediary role. Comments from US or Iranian officials could further impact the market.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
