Democrats are considering a lawsuit against President Trump over the Iran conflict. The market for Trump out as President by April 30 sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
The War Powers Resolution deadline on May 1 is adding pressure on Trump, but the odds for his removal by April 30 remain low with only one day left until the market resolves. A 50-point spike within the day shows volatility but no lasting change in trader sentiment. The December 31 market remains unpriced, which points to uncertainty about Trump’s long-term position.
The market for US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026 sits at 0.2% YES and is not directly affected by the potential lawsuit. Traders are pricing domestic political maneuvers separately from international negotiations.
Trading volume on the Trump removal market is $11,897 in daily USDC traded, with a $2,370 requirement to move the price 5 points, suggesting moderate liquidity. The largest move was a 50-point spike at 11:40 AM that didn’t hold. There is some trader engagement, but not enough to shift the market without a major catalyst.
The Democrats’ legal threat is more political theater than actionable pressure at this stage. A YES share at 0.1¢ offers a potential 1,000x return, but only if Trump leaves office immediately. Any real shift would require a bipartisan push or a dramatic event.
Watch for announcements from the White House or Congress about the War Powers Resolution. If Democrats file the lawsuit or if Trump makes a surprise resignation announcement, the market could move fast.
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Trump Out As President April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22, 2026 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
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