Delphint Weekly Market Insight(April 1-April 7, 2026): Geopolitical Dominance & Asset Differentiation
Delphint8 min read·Just now--
This week, the global market was driven by three core factors: the escalation of US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, the release of major economic data in China and the US, and the continuous implementation of global cryptocurrency regulatory policies. It presented a pattern of US stocks rising in volatility, A-shares adjusting as a whole, sharp fluctuations in foreign exchange and commodities, and fierce long-short games in the cryptocurrency market. Geopolitical uncertainty has become the primary variable affecting market trends, and the wait-and-see sentiment in all major markets is strong.
I. US Economic Situation: Strong Short-Term Data, Weak Long-Term Resilience, Tight Monetary Policy
US stocks rose across the board with growth stocks outperforming value stocks; the job market exceeded expectations but lacked trend improvement; the market’s interest rate cut expectations cooled completely; and Treasury bond yields moved higher driven by safe-haven sentiment.
- Stock Market: The S&P 500 rose 3.36% weekly (down 3.84% YTD), the Nasdaq rose 4.44% weekly (down 5.86% YTD), and the tech seven giants index led the gains with a 5.06% weekly increase (down 10.51% YTD); large-cap growth stocks outperformed small-cap growth and value stocks in terms of style.
- Employment: March non-farm payrolls increased by 178,000, far exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.30%; however, the ISM manufacturing employment index edged down, and the 6-month private sector employment diffusion index fell back, indicating only short-term resilience in the job market.
- Monetary Policy: The CME Fedwatch Tool showed that the possibility of a June rate cut was basically ruled out, and the market’s expectation for cumulative rate cuts in 2026 returned to zero; the market fully expected the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in April.
- Treasury Bonds: The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to about 4.35%, driven by the risk aversion from the US-Iran conflict.
The bright short-term economic data cannot cover up the long-term growth concerns. The combination of tight monetary policy and geopolitical conflicts has increased the uncertainty of the US economic trend, and the stock market’s upward trend is supported by short-term data but faces potential pullback risks.
II. China’s Economic Situation: External Disturbances Lead to Adjustment, Obvious Industry Differentiation, Prudent Market Sentiment
A-shares generally adjusted with growth indexes leading the decline; industry performance was polarized with energy sectors plunging and consumption and communication sectors rebounding; market transaction activity and capital inflows both contracted; Hong Kong stocks showed a differentiated trend with dividend sectors outperforming technology sectors.
- Index Performance: Major A-share broad-based indexes fell across the board, with the ChiNext Index dropping 4.44% (the largest decline), the STAR Market 50 Index falling 3.42%, and the Shanghai Composite Index edging down 0.86%; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.66% against the trend, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.07%.
- Industry Trend: Among the SW primary industries, only 4 rose and 27 fell; communications, medical biology and food and beverage rebounded, while traditional energy, new energy and coal led the decline, with the public utilities sector falling 8.62%.
- Market Sentiment: The average daily turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets dropped to 1.88 trillion yuan; the margin trading balance fell slightly to 2.60 trillion yuan; stock ETFs had a net outflow of 25.7 billion yuan.
A-shares are mainly disturbed by external geopolitical conflicts and the tight monetary policy of the US. The market lacks a clear main line, and capital risk aversion has risen. Dividend and consumer sectors have become relatively safe-haven choices, and the follow-up trend depends on the easing of external uncertainties and the implementation of domestic economic stimulus policies.
III. Foreign Exchange and Commodity Market: Dominated by US-Iran Geopolitics, Sharp Fluctuations in Asset Prices
The US dollar index rebounded driven by safe-haven sentiment; gold prices stabilized under the game of risk aversion and interest rate hike expectations; WTI crude oil soared to a high since June 2022 due to supply concerns, and geopolitical progress has become the core pricing factor.
- US Dollar: The US dollar index rebounded above 100, supported by the risk aversion from Trump’s threat to attack Iran, and the market focused on US economic data such as inflation and durable goods orders.
- Gold: Gold prices stabilized at around $4,650 per ounce, with safe-haven demand supporting prices and expectations of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates high suppressing the upward space; gold prices have fallen about 12% since the start of the US-Iran conflict.
- Crude Oil: WTI crude oil rose to around $115 per barrel, a new high since June 2022; the US threatened to attack Iran’s energy and civil infrastructure, and Iran refused a temporary ceasefire, exacerbating market concerns about global energy supply shortages; US crude oil had previously risen 1.3% to $113 per barrel.
The foreign exchange and commodity market is completely dominated by the US-Iran geopolitical game. If the conflict escalates, crude oil prices are likely to rise further, and the safe-haven demand for the US dollar and gold will continue to increase; if a ceasefire agreement is reached, commodity prices may pull back and risk appetite may recover.
IV. Cryptocurrency Market: Entering a Critical Long-Short Game Period, Facing a Clear Directional Choice
Mainstream currencies BTC and ETH are in a key pattern decision stage; altcoins perform weakly with some breaking key support levels; ETF capital flows are differentiated, exchange inventories rise and selling pressure accumulates; stablecoin market value shows a net inflow trend, and market wait-and-see sentiment is strong.
- Mainstream Currencies: BTC oscillated after a slight decline, with the key resistance at $72,000 and the core support at $65,650; ETH had a stable repair, with the key resistance at $2,170 and the core support at $1,920; a clear break of the key position will determine the subsequent trend.
- Altcoins: BNB and SOL both broke through the “war bottom” key support, with BNB likely to test the $500 bull-bear dividing line; XRP’s trend is unclear and lacks a clear direction.
- ETF Capital Flow: Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of $22.34 million in the week, while Ethereum spot ETFs had a net outflow of $42.15 million for three consecutive weeks.
- Inventory and Stablecoins: BTC and ETH exchange inventories rebounded, indicating increased selling pressure; the total market value of the four major stablecoins (USDT, USDC, USDE, DAI) reached $272.334 billion, with a general net inflow.
The cryptocurrency market is in a critical period of direction selection, with great market divergence and low risk appetite. The optimal short-term strategy is to wait for a clear directional breakthrough of the key support and resistance levels of mainstream currencies, and avoid the weak-performing altcoins.
V. Key Global News This Week: Geopolitics and Regulatory Policies as the Main Line, Directly Affecting Market Trends
The escalation of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict is the core event affecting the global market; the global digital currency regulatory policy is continuously implemented, promoting the standardization of the industry; there are changes in the international political pattern and network security risk warnings, adding market uncertainty.
- US-Iran Conflict: Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz will only be fully opened after compensation for war losses; Trump set a deadline for Iran to open the strait, threatening to attack its energy and civil infrastructure, directly pushing up oil prices and safe-haven asset prices.
- US Political and Diplomatic Affairs: The White House refuted rumors of Trump’s serious illness and hospitalization; Trump threatened to withdraw the US from NATO because NATO refused to participate in the military operation against Iran, exacerbating the defense rift between the US and Europe.
- Digital Currency Regulation: The People’s Bank of China added 12 banks as digital RMB operation institutions; the ECB clarified the plan to launch the digital euro in July 2029; the US, Australia, Dubai and Russia issued new cryptocurrency regulatory rules, and the industry’s standardization level was further improved.
- Network Security: MIIT warned of malicious programs imitating OpenClaw, which may cause network attacks and information leakage, and announced counterfeiting domain names and malicious installation packages.
Summary
This week, the global market was dominated by the US-Iran geopolitical conflict, with the economic data and monetary policies of China and the US, as well as the global cryptocurrency regulatory policies, acting as important auxiliary factors, resulting in significant differentiation in the trend of various major asset classes.
The US economy has strong short-term performance but weak long-term resilience, and the tight monetary policy tone is clear; A-shares are adjusted by external disturbances, with obvious industry and capital risk aversion characteristics; foreign exchange and commodities fluctuate sharply with the geopolitical situation, and crude oil leads the gains in commodities; the cryptocurrency market has intensified long-short games, and mainstream currencies are facing a critical direction choice.
In the short term, the progress of the US-Iran geopolitical conflict is still the core focus of the global market, which will directly determine the trend of bulk commodities and safe-haven assets; the cryptocurrency market needs to closely track the breakthrough of key support and resistance levels of BTC and ETH. The overall uncertainty of the global market remains high, with large volatility risks, and the wait-and-see sentiment will continue to dominate the market transactions.
Delphint is a world-leading digital financial infrastructure and intelligent operations provider. We integrate liquidity market making, institutional quantitative asset management, forex broker white-label solutions, and full-scenario AI to build a flexibly deployable, seamlessly collaborative ecosystem.
Our modular approach delivers one-stop growth solutions for Web3 projects, global brokers, and high-net-worth funds, covering full-chain services from infrastructure building to wealth growth.
More than a tech provider, we are your long-term growth partner. For details, DM: [email protected]
