DeFi recorded its worst month ever with a $292 million hack attributed to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. The market for another $100M+ crypto hack by year-end sits at 100.0% YES.
The attack on KelpDAO used a spoofed cross-chain message, releasing funds to an attacker wallet. Aave froze rsETH markets in response, and the Arbitrum Security Council intervened by freezing $70.9 million of the stolen funds. The market has fully priced in another major hack by December 31, with traders expecting further state-sponsored cyber operations targeting DeFi protocols.
The Lazarus Group’s involvement points to continued sophisticated attacks on crypto infrastructure. North Korea has repeatedly used such exploits to fund its nuclear program. The market’s fixed 100% YES position means traders see no realistic scenario in which the rest of 2025 passes without another $100M+ breach.
At 100% YES, a share pays practically nothing. The market is effectively closed as a trading opportunity. Anyone looking to express a view on DeFi security risk needs to find volume and liquidity in other markets, since this one offers no meaningful payout.
Watch for post-incident analyses from security firms like Chainalysis and CertiK, which are likely to publish detailed breakdowns of the attack vector and identify related vulnerabilities in other DeFi protocols.
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Another Crypto Hack Over 100m December 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
