Several cruise ships fled the Persian Gulf over the weekend, transiting the Strait of Hormuz during a brief window amid ongoing conflict. The successful transit hasn’t moved the market predicting fewer than 10 ships would pass through between April 13-19, which sits at 0.4% YES.
Market reaction
The April 19 contract ticked up from 0% YES to 0.4% YES, with face value volume at $2,923 and $14 in actual USDC traded. The largest move was a 2-point spike at 4:25 AM. Traders remain skeptical that transit will continue under current geopolitical conditions.
Why it matters
The odds for ships transiting during this period are at rock bottom, meaning the market expects restrictions to hold. Actual USDC traded is minimal, showing little conviction among traders. The order book depth is thin: only $12 is needed to move prices 5 percentage points, so even modest trading activity could swing this contract.
What to watch
The brief opening of the Strait of Hormuz came during a tense standoff, and the subsequent reclosure shows how fragile these windows are. For traders, buying YES at 0.4¢ pays $1 if fewer than 10 ships transit by April 19, a 250x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe further restrictions will be enforced within a day. Watch for updates from CENTCOM or IRGC on the strait’s status. Any signals of further closures or reopenings could shift this market fast.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 6 12| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.2% | — | — | Trade → |
