Consumer Confidence “Inched Up” in March — But Look at What’s Underneath
Signal82 min read·Just now--
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for March came in at 91.8, up 0.8 points from February. The headlines will call it an improvement. It’s not.
Here’s what the headline number obscures.
The Present vs. Expectations Gap Is Widening
The Present Situation Index rose 4.6 points to 123.3 — people think things are fine right now.
The Expectations Index fell 1.7 points to 70.9 — but they think it’s about to get worse.
The gap between “things are fine” and “things are about to not be fine” is widening every month. That divergence is a leading indicator worth paying attention to.
Inflation and Rate Expectations Are Surging
12-month inflation expectations surged to levels last seen in August 2025 — right before the last round of tariff announcements.
Net expectations for higher interest rates jumped from 34.9% to 42.4% in a single month.
Stock price expectations plunged.
This is not what “confidence” looks like.
Spending Plans Tell the Real Story
This is where the data gets real:
- Big-ticket purchase plans: shifted from yes/maybe to NO
- Foreign travel plans: collapsed
- Services spending intent: shifted from yes/maybe to NO
Consumers are pulling back to “cheap thrills and necessities.” Those are the Conference Board’s words, not ours.
Utilities and Healthcare Are Displacing Travel
Utilities and healthcare just displaced hotel/travel in the top 5 spending categories.
When people are prioritizing electricity bills over vacations, the “soft landing” narrative has a problem. The Iran war oil shock combined with tariff passthrough is doing exactly what you’d expect — squeezing discretionary spending while essential costs climb.
The Bigger Picture
The Conference Board’s own chief economist says the index has been on a “general downward trend since 2021.”
But sure, it went up 0.8 points this month.
For investors and analysts: look past the headline. The sub-indices, inflation expectations, and spending intent data paint a very different picture from the top-line number the market will react to.
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