Col. Macgregor’s remarks emphasize Iran’s defensive capabilities and its intent to control war terms. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 are at 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday and 26% a week ago.
Macgregor supports air and missile strikes over a costly ground invasion. The April 15 market is at 18% YES, showing skepticism about a near-term ceasefire. A notable shift occurred between April 15 and April 30, with a 20-point jump indicating traders expect a mid-April catalyst.
Trading data shows $1,365,780 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours across all sub-markets, with a 4-point spike on April 30 odds being the largest move. It takes $15,138 to shift April 7 odds by 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.
Macgregor’s comments highlight the challenges of a land invasion but don’t provide new facts or official statements. The ceasefire market remains pessimistic without diplomatic progress. At 8¢, a YES share for April 7 pays $1 if resolved, offering a 12.5x return for those betting on a quick diplomatic breakthrough.
Watch for Trump’s April 1 address for potential changes in rhetoric or involvement from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Confirmed negotiations or back-channel meetings could significantly alter the odds.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.9% | -6.6% | $3.4M | Trade → |
| April 15 | 10.5% | -8% | $3.3M | Trade → |
| April 30 | 27.5% | -11% | $1.4M | Trade → |
| May 31 | 48% | -7.5% | $243K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 59.5% | -3% | $190K | Trade → |
| December 31 | 72.5% | -1% | $133K | Trade → |
