China’s foreign ministry advised its citizens to leave Iran or relocate to safer areas, citing security risks. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 sit at 8.5% YES, up from 6% a week ago.
The Iranian Regime Fall market has moved modestly but remains low overall. Traders appear hesitant to bet on immediate regime change despite heightened tensions. The Trump China Visit market has shifted more sharply. The May 31 odds now sit at 71.5% YES, down from 78% a day ago, suggesting traders see regional instability as a possible deterrent to Trump’s potential visit.
The Iranian regime fall market has a face value of $385,189 daily, but actual USDC volume is $30,969, pointing to high interest paired with cautious real-money betting. The order book requires $26,254 to move the price 5 percentage points, a relatively thick book that would take significant capital to shift. The largest single movement was a 1-point spike, consistent with slow, cautious positioning from traders.
China’s advisory doesn’t guarantee immediate fallout but signals a cautious diplomatic stance. The drop in Trump visit odds suggests traders are pricing in broader geopolitical spillover. A YES share in the regime fall market at 8.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 11.76x return. That bet assumes escalating instability leads to regime collapse within 68 days.
Watch for further Chinese diplomatic moves and new security advisories. Statements from Xi Jinping or shifts in US diplomatic posture toward Iran could move both markets.
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Will Trump Visit China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 71.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 80.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
