China is set to import a record 800,000 tonnes of US ethane in April as the Iran conflict disrupts petrochemical feedstocks, while the Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 has dropped sharply.
Market reaction
The Strait of Hormuz normalization market faces a grim outlook. The blockage has cut off China’s usual naphtha and LPG sources, and traders now price in long-term infrastructure damage that makes restored traffic unlikely by the end of May. The US declaration of war on Iran by April 30 sits at 1% YES, unchanged despite the escalation. The December contract remains at 6%, suggesting traders see a longer timeline for potential US military action.
Why it matters
China’s shift to US ethane, previously constrained by export controls, signals how severe the supply crunch has become. The Strait of Hormuz market shows no recorded trading activity, pointing to either caution or skepticism about any quick resolution. China’s forced pivot and the ongoing conflict are pressuring markets to reprice expectations for Middle Eastern oil and gas exports broadly.
What to watch
A YES share on Hormuz traffic normalizing by end of May would require a major geopolitical shift or ceasefire extension, which current conditions make unlikely. The market’s pricing reflects that. CENTCOM updates, diplomatic signals from Iran’s leadership, or moves by the US administration could shift odds quickly if they point toward a softening stance or a negotiation breakthrough.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.6% | — | — | Trade → |
