China is ramping up diplomatic efforts with Iran while coordinating a summit with Trump. The market for Trump’s visit to China by May 31 is at 85.5% YES, up from 76% a week ago.
China’s active diplomacy has traders bullish on Trump’s visit. The May 31 market sits at 85.5% YES. The June 30 market also climbed to 90.5% YES. The term structure suggests traders expect a catalyst between now and May, given the 84-point jump from April 30 to May 31.
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting location market prices “no qualifying meeting by June 30” at just 2.1% YES. Traders expect China’s mediation to produce talks well before that deadline.
Trading volume at $49,516 in USDC over 24 hours across the Trump visit markets. The largest move was a modest 1-point spike, showing confidence without panic buying. The May 31 market can absorb moderate trades, with $3,933 required to shift odds by 5 points.
China’s mediator role, combined with US coordination, points toward a genuine de-escalation track and a Trump-Xi summit. The contrarian angle: at 86¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump visits by May 31, a 1.16x return. That bet assumes no sudden geopolitical disruption derails the plans.
Watch for official announcements confirming summit dates or new developments in China-Iran-US diplomacy. Xi’s confirmation or an unexpected Trump post could move these markets fast.
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Will Trump Visit China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 87.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 90% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.6% | — | — | Trade → |
