China is ready to mediate the Hormuz crisis, affecting US-Iran ceasefire odds. The chance of a ceasefire by April 30 is now at 38.5% YES, up from 36% yesterday.
This change suggests a diplomatic shift as China uses its influence with involved parties. The April 30 market saw a 4-point increase, indicating traders expect significant developments soon. The April 7 market remains low at 8.5% YES, showing doubt about a quick resolution.
Traders anticipate a catalyst between April 15 and April 30, with a 20-point jump. The May 31 market sits at 55.5% YES, showing optimism for a resolution by then.
Today’s trading shows $1,365,780 in USDC traded across these markets. The $43,954 needed to move April 15 odds 5 points suggests institutional interest.
China’s involvement could shift focus from military to diplomatic solutions, reducing the chance of US forces entering Iran. A YES share at 38.5¢ for April 30 pays $1 if a ceasefire is announced, offering a potential 2.6x return. Traders must believe in progress within 28 days for this to be viable.
Watch for China’s diplomatic moves, especially formal ceasefire talks or actions from Oman or Qatar. Secretary of State Rubio’s next steps and CENTCOM statements will be crucial.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 73.5% | — | — | Trade → |
