China is working behind the scenes to help end the Iran war, acting as a diplomatic middleman. The odds of Trump announcing an end to military operations by April 21 sit at 9% YES.
Market reaction
The ceasefire market for April 21 dropped from 33% a week ago, suggesting traders see little chance of a quick resolution. Visit China by May 31 is at 89.5% YES, driven by Beijing’s diplomatic positioning.
Why it matters
The Trump visit to China market reflects rising expectations of direct engagement. The May 31 odds climbed from 76% a week ago. Order book depth of $3,933 suggests the market can absorb substantial trades without major slippage.
China’s approach here is about maintaining energy security and diplomatic leverage without direct confrontation, focused on de-escalation rather than escalation.
What to watch
At 9¢, a YES share on the ceasefire ending by April 21 pays $1, an 11x return. For that bet to work, you’d need to believe a diplomatic breakthrough is coming within 5 days.
Key signals: statements from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or a Trump social media post about diplomatic progress. Any confirmation of a ceasefire extension or Trump’s May visit to China would move these markets.
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Will Trump Visit China| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 92.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
