Chevron’s CEO warns that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, military escorts will be necessary, resembling a warzone. The market for 80 ships transiting by April 30 sits at 5% YES, down from 51% a week ago.
Market reaction
Odds for April 30 are low across all ship transit sub-markets, at 5%. The collapse from 51% a week ago reflects deep skepticism about shipping normalization. The May 15 market isn’t much better, with YES odds at 17.5%, down from 20% yesterday.
Why it matters
The April 30 market trades $449 in USDC daily, with just $542 needed to move the price 5 points. That thin liquidity means small trades can swing odds significantly. The May 15 market is more liquid at $36,459 in daily USDC trading, suggesting broader participation. Chevron’s comments about military escorts point to persistent risks that work against traffic normalization. At 5¢, a YES bet on 80 ship transits by April 30 offers a 20x payout, but the bet requires rapid de-escalation, which the military escort requirement directly contradicts.
What to watch
Updates from U.S. Central Command or IRGC actions. If either side signals a commitment to reducing tensions, odds could shift. Admiral Cooper’s next briefing or a ceasefire announcement would be the key indicators.
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Will Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz On Any Day End Of April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
