## Market Snapshot
US-Iran nuclear deal market is currently priced at 15% YES, slightly up from 14% over the last 24 hours. The Iran airspace closure market shows no relevant change due to the current news event.
## Key Takeaways
– The CENTCOM denial of Iran’s missile strike claim indicates continued high tensions between the US and Iran. – The ongoing military operations appear consistent with scenarios that reduce the likelihood of diplomatic breakthroughs. – Current market pricing suggests skepticism about the potential for a new US-Iran nuclear deal by the end of May.
## Article Body
Central Command (CENTCOM) has refuted claims made by Iran regarding a missile strike, labeling the allegations as fabricated. This statement comes amidst heightened military tensions from Operation Epic Fury, a US-led campaign targeting Iranian military assets. CENTCOM reports significant progress in neutralizing Iran’s military capabilities, with a notable reduction in Iran’s missile and drone attack rates. The denial is seen as a countermeasure to Iranian information operations, which have included unsubstantiated allegations of civilian strikes. This development underscores the ongoing high level of conflict and the challenges to diplomatic progress between the two nations.
## Market Interpretation
The CENTCOM statement, coupled with the ongoing military operations, appears supportive of a NO outcome for the US-Iran nuclear deal market by May 31. The impact of this news is assessed as moderate, with market pricing indicating a decreased likelihood of a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran within the set timeframe.
## What to Watch
Observers should monitor any responses from Iran’s leadership to CENTCOM’s denial, as well as potential escalations in military action. Statements from key diplomatic figures, such as US Secretary of State or Iran’s Supreme Leader, could provide further insights into the potential for any diplomatic progress. Additionally, any announcements regarding US-Iran negotiations or third-party mediation efforts could influence market perceptions.
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Us Iran Nuclear Deal May 31 974| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 15.5% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 8 | 21.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 46% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2026 | 4.6% | — | — | View market → |
| December 31, 2026 | 20% | — | — | View market → |
