CENTCOM’s Adm. Brad Cooper confirmed the continuation of the naval blockade against Iranian ports during a Pentagon briefing. The likelihood of Trump announcing an end to military operations against Iran by March 1, 2027, sits at 9% YES, down from 33% a week ago.
The April 21 sub-market reflects the sustained military posture, with odds at 9%. Daily face value trading is $19,342, but actual USDC volume is only $2,128, meaning real money is far more cautious than notional volume suggests. Moving the odds 5 percentage points requires about $2,091, which points to moderate liquidity.
Cooper’s briefing also weighs on the Iran diplomatic meetings market, where a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15 now looks less probable. Odds for the Strait of Hormuz blockade being lifted by May 31 remain at 82% YES, showing more confidence in longer-term diplomatic resolution than in any near-term shift.
The confirmed blockade continuation narrows the window for imminent de-escalation. Traders betting on an early resolution face long odds. A YES share at 9¢ pays $1 if Trump announces an end to military operations by April 21, a 11.1x return, but that requires a rapid diplomatic breakthrough with no current evidence of one.
Watch for Trump’s next Truth Social post or any Pentagon briefings that might signal a change in military strategy. Any announcements from regional intermediaries like Oman or Qatar could also indicate behind-the-scenes negotiations.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 12 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 82% | — | — | Trade → |
