Explosions in Kuwait and Iranian missile strikes on Haifa continue in the 2026 Iran war. Ceasefire by April 7 is at 1.1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
Iran’s missile and drone attacks on Gulf states and Israeli cities have traders bearish on a quick ceasefire. The April 7 market is nearly at zero, reflecting little confidence in an immediate diplomatic solution. The April 15 market sits at 6.5% YES, indicating low chances of peace soon.
Market trends show declining short-term optimism. The April 30 market fell from 40% to 17.5% YES, suggesting traders expect de-escalation beyond the immediate conflict window. The May 31 odds are at 36.5% YES, down from 52%.
Trading volume is at $431,402 across all sub-markets, with varying order book depth. The April 7 market needs $12,352 to shift odds by 5 points, indicating potential volatility. The April 15 market is more stable, requiring $40,093 for a similar move.
The ongoing conflict and hardline rhetoric from both sides suggest a low probability of a ceasefire soon. Traders betting on a YES outcome for April 7 at 1¢ face high risk, with the market heavily skewed towards continued conflict. Significant diplomatic moves or a lull in hostilities are needed for a YES outcome to gain traction.
Watch for CENTCOM statements or diplomatic efforts from Oman or Qatar. These could change market perceptions if they indicate a move towards de-escalation.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
