Ceasefire odds drop sharply amid US-Israel airstrikes and Iran threats: FT

By Estefano Gomez · Published April 3, 2026 · 2 min read · Source: Crypto Briefing

by Estefano Gomez · Just now ago

U.S. and Israeli airstrikes targeted regime sites in northwestern Iran, while Iran threatened a UAE data center. The April 7 ceasefire odds dropped to 1.8% YES from 8% yesterday.

The escalation hit the markets hard. The April 7 ceasefire market is now at 1.8% YES, showing skepticism about a resolution soon. The April 15 market fell to 8.5% from 18%, and the April 30 market dropped to 23.5% from 40%, indicating a major shift in expectations.

Trading volume hit $535,634 in USDC over the past 24 hours, reflecting serious concern over the conflict. With $25,858 needed to shift the April 7 odds by 5 points, the market depth suggests significant trades, not just minor bets. The largest price move was a 1-point drop at 1:12 AM, indicating a steady sell-off.

The escalation risks further destabilizing the region and reduces ceasefire chances. Iran’s threat to the UAE data center could widen the conflict. A YES share for the April 7 ceasefire trades at 2¢, offering a 50x return if a ceasefire is declared, but this would require a major diplomatic breakthrough soon.

Watch for CENTCOM statements on U.S. military actions and any diplomatic moves from Oman or Qatar. Sudden rhetoric changes or confirmed back-channel meetings could signal market shifts.

Markets Impacted

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.8% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 8.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 23.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 45.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 57.5% YES
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 70.5% YES

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.

Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure

Contract	Odds	Δ since publish	Volume 24h
April 7	1.8%	—	—	Trade →
April 15	8.5%	—	—	Trade →
April 30	23.5%	—	—	Trade →
May 31	45.5%	—	—	Trade →
June 30	57.5%	—	—	Trade →
December 31	70.5%	—	—	Trade →

Source

This article was originally published on Crypto Briefing and is republished here under RSS syndication for informational purposes. All rights and intellectual property remain with the original author. If you are the author and wish to have this article removed, please contact us at [email protected].