Iran’s call for a permanent ceasefire clashes with rising conflict. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% YES, down from 12% last week.
Strikes on Khuzestan’s petrochemical sites and Israel’s evacuation warnings for southern Lebanon have traders doubting a quick ceasefire. April 15 ceasefire odds are at 6% YES, down from 22% last week. The April 30 market shows 18% YES, a significant fall from 40% last week.
Trading volume reveals market sentiment. April 7 sees $22,948 in daily USDC traded, with $12,352 needed to shift the market 5 points, indicating volatility. The April 30 market, with $197,596 in daily USDC traded, suggests more serious bets, but only a 2-point price move shows limited confidence in a swift resolution.
The report from @FirstSquawk highlights escalating tensions. US-Israeli airstrikes on economic targets and Israel’s evacuation orders reduce diplomatic prospects. A YES share at 1¢ for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if it resolves, but chances are slim without a sudden diplomatic shift.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or diplomatic efforts from Oman and Qatar. Any change in talks could alter market dynamics, but military actions remain the focus.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |
