U.S. and Iran aren’t negotiating due to irreconcilable differences, quashing hopes for a deal. Ceasefire by April 7 sits at 1% YES, down from 12% a week ago.
The bleak assessment from both sides has sent traders scrambling to reassess their positions. The April 7 market is practically dead at 1% YES. The April 15 market isn’t faring much better at 6%, down from 22% a week ago. The April 30 market dropped to 18% YES, a steep decline from 40% just seven days prior. The May 31 market currently stands at 36%, marking a noticeable shift as traders now look further out for any resolution.
The total face value traded across these sub-markets reached $3.76M in the past 24 hours, with actual USDC trading at $430K. The April 30 market saw the largest single move — a 2-point spike — indicating that traders are still reacting to any slight shifts in the news cycle. However, moving the price 5 points would take $12K to $40K, depending on the market date, suggesting that even a few significant trades can sway the odds in these relatively thin markets.
This latest development underscores the persistent challenges in achieving a ceasefire. The social media source, though tier-3, emphasizes the entrenched positions of both nations. For traders, this means the likelihood of a near-term ceasefire remains slim, especially with the April 7 deadline just four days away. The 1% YES payout here translates to a 100x return if resolved, but the odds suggest you’d be betting on a miracle.
Keep an eye on any official statements from Secretary of State Rubio or Secretary of Defense Hegseth, as well as any signs of intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar. Those could be the catalysts needed to shift the current trajectory and breathe life back into these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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Add us on Google Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 36.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 51.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 68.5% | — | — | Trade → |