CBS aired a rare report from inside the Strait of Hormuz, showing continued U.S. blockade and IRGC control. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 is at 0.4% YES.
The CBS piece showed Iran’s Revolutionary Guard dictating passage through the strait. The market, priced at 0.4% YES, reflects near-zero probability of increased passage given the blockade. Odds moved from 0% and show little likelihood of change with only one day left to resolve.
The U.S. blockade has been in effect since April 13 with no signs of resolution. The Trump blockade announcement market sits at 78% YES for a lift by May 31, suggesting traders expect a diplomatic resolution, but not before the current period ends.
Volume for the transit market is thin, with only $14 in USDC traded. The market is easily moved, requiring just $12 to shift odds by 5 percentage points. This low liquidity means the 0.4% price carries limited informational weight.
At 0.4¢, a YES share pays $1 if fewer than 10 ships transit, a 250x return. The CBS report reaffirms the status quo rather than introducing new information. For odds to shift meaningfully, there would need to be signals of reduced IRGC activity or the U.S. Navy easing its blockade.
Watch for updates from Pakistan’s mediation efforts in the coming week. Any softening in Iran’s stance or U.S. policy could change the situation, but the current odds are likely to hold until then.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 78.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
