BTC Cohort Flows – 30D Structure Read (Apr 4 – May 3)

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Introduction

This report examines how Bitcoin supply has been redistributed across holder cohorts over the past 30 days.

The objective is to identify underlying market behavior through changes in positioning – where capital is accumulating, where exposure is being reduced, and how different segments of the market interact.

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Methodology

The analysis is based on cohort segmentation of Bitcoin supply, where addresses are grouped by balance size:

• Micro (0.01 – 0.1 BTC)

• Retail (0.1 – 1 BTC)

• Upper Retail (1 – 10 BTC)

• Fish (10 – 100 BTC)

• Sharks (100 – 1k BTC)

• Whales (1k – 10k BTC)

• Mega (10k+ BTC)

These cohorts are widely used to approximate behavioral differences across market participants.

Data is sourced from CoreCharts, ensuring consistent cohort classification and time-series tracking.

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Cohort Breakdown

Micro (<0.1 BTC)

Address Count: Increased from 54.17M to 54.42M (+245,993 addresses)

BTC Supply: Increased from 327,624 BTC to 328,534 BTC (+910 BTC)

Flow Behavior: The micro cohort shows gradual expansion, although the growth was uneven. Early volatility was followed by steady accumulation, with slight exhaustion towards the end of the period. This behavior indicates gradual onboarding rather than strong conviction buying.

Takeaway: Slow expansion, low-quality demand.

Retail (0.1 – 1 BTC)

Address Count: Decreased from 3.515M to 3.513M (−1,496 addresses)

BTC Supply: Decreased from 1,073,808 BTC to 1,072,983 BTC (−825 BTC)

Flow Behavior: Retail participation contracted. The period began with stability but shifted into a decline mid-period, followed by a weak recovery. This suggests a lack of follow-through on dips and reduced participation.

Takeaway: Retail is not driving the market.

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Upper Retail (1 – 10 BTC)

Address Count: Stable, fluctuating around 824K addresses (+343 addresses)

BTC Supply: Increased by 2,616 BTC

Flow Behavior: Upper retail remained stable throughout the period. After an initial dip, gradual rebuilding occurred, indicating more selective engagement. The cohort shows more stability than retail.

Takeaway: Holding ground, slight improvement.

Fish (10 – 100 BTC)

Address Count: Decreased from 130.4K to 130.25K (−159 addresses)

BTC Supply: Decreased by 5,699 BTC

Flow Behavior: Fish saw subtle outflows early, followed by stabilization and partial recovery. This cohort is not capitulating but rather adjusting its positions.

Takeaway: Soft outflow, reduced conviction.

Sharks (100 – 1k BTC)

Address Count: Increased from 18,062 to 18,179 (+165 addresses)

BTC Supply: Increased by 65,813 BTC

Flow Behavior: Sharks showed clear accumulation, with a noticeable increase in both address count and supply. This indicates active positioning rather than passive holding.

Takeaway: Accumulation building.

Whales (1k – 10k BTC)

Address Count: Remained stable, fluctuating between 1,930 and 1,946 addresses

BTC Supply: Slight decrease of 11,303 BTC

Flow Behavior: Whales were stable for most of the period, showing no signs of aggressive distribution. Accumulation was not aggressive either.

Takeaway: Neutral, slight cooling.

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Mega (10k+ BTC)

Address Count: Decreased from 84 to 82 addresses (−2 addresses)

BTC Supply: Decreased by 38,886 BTC

Flow Behavior: The decrease occurred early and then stabilized. This could reflect redistribution to smaller cohorts or structural wallet changes.

Takeaway: Structural shift, unclear signal.

Cross-Cohort Structure

Micro: Expanding

Retail: Contracting

Upper Retail: Stable

Fish: Slightly reducing

Sharks: Expanding

Whales: Stable

Mega: Declining

The structure is not aligned, showing divergence across cohorts, with micro and sharks expanding, while retail and fish are contracting.

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Regime Identification

The structure reflects a mixed regime:

• Accumulation: Sharks, partially micro

• Stability: Upper retail, whales

• Defensive behavior: Retail, fish

• Structural shift: Mega cohort

There is no clear risk-on signal.

Conclusion

Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin supply has shown mild redistribution rather than directional flow. Smaller holders are not expanding meaningfully, while mid-tier participation remains weak. Sharks are adding exposure, while whales are holding steady. The market is not being driven from the bottom.

This type of structure typically leads to slow, controlled price movement rather than strong directional expansion.

Key Takeaways

Bullish:

• Expansion in sharks (~+0.6%)

• Stability in whales

• No broad distribution

Bearish:

• Retail contraction (~−0.3 to −0.5%)

• Weak mid-tier participation

• Lack of strong micro follow-through

Neutral / Mixed:

• Upper retail flat

• Mega cohort decline (unclear signal)

• Overall divergence across cohorts

Verdict

Positioning is uneven. Accumulation is taking place mainly in the 100 – 1k BTC range, but larger holders are not distributing, and smaller cohorts are not stepping in. The market is being supported, though not broadly. This typically leads to slow, controlled movement rather than strong directional expansion.

This is a structural read, not a prediction.