Brent crude rose $4 a barrel to a three-week high after US-Iran talks stalled, pushing the probability of crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June higher on Polymarket.
The market for crude oil hitting $90 by June is drawing more interest. The standoff in US-Iran negotiations, combined with the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has created bullish conditions for oil prices. Supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions are exactly the factors the market profile identifies as drivers for a $90 breach.
The April 30 market for crude reaching an all-time high sits at just 0.9% YES, and attention is shifting toward June instead. Traders appear to expect the geopolitical situation to affect oil prices over a longer horizon rather than producing a spike before the end of April.
Trading volume in these crude oil markets has been zero over the past 24 hours, suggesting traders are waiting for the next concrete development before committing capital. But the underlying conditions, the Iranian Strait blockade and US naval actions, mean any breakthrough or escalation could shift sentiment quickly.
What to watch
For traders, the stalled talks are a decision point. At 67 days out, the June market leaves time for conditions to change. Buying YES at current levels could pay off if tensions stay elevated or worsen, but the near-zero probability in the April 30 all-time high market shows limited belief in an immediate price surge.
Key triggers to monitor: US-Iran diplomatic channels, any announcements on the Strait of Hormuz or military escalation, and actions from OPEC or the US Energy Information Administration that could move price expectations.
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