BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust acquired 3,940 BTC yesterday, bringing its total to 13,571 BTC purchased over the last six days. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9% YES.
The April 17 market reflects near certainty, with Bitcoin well above $62,000. Other sub-markets for April 17 also sit at 99.9% YES. The April 18 markets are slightly lower but still firm at 99.8% YES.
Volume hit $215,638 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. The largest move was a 31-point spike on April 15, when traders responded to BlackRock’s buying activity.
BlackRock’s accumulation of 13,571 BTC in six days is the kind of institutional buying that reinforces the case for Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat instability, particularly with oil prices moving on the U.S.-Iran conflict. At these odds, the market has already priced in sustained prices above $62,000 in the short term. A YES share at 99.9¢ offers negligible upside, reflecting consensus rather than opportunity.
Watch for shifts in U.S.-Iran relations or Federal Reserve statements that could disrupt this stability. Jerome Powell’s comments or a surprise move in the conflict could inject volatility into these markets.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Bitcoin Above On April 17| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |