BlackRock purchased $900 million in Bitcoin through its iShares Bitcoin Trust. Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April now sits at 75.5% YES, up from 44% yesterday and 31% a week ago.
The $80,000 target market had $261,995 in face value trades, with actual USDC spent at $105,235. The largest single move was a 5-point spike at 8:48 AM, pushing odds from 46% to 50%. Bitcoin $80,000 is now priced as likely, with the jump in odds coinciding with geopolitical tensions involving Iran, Israel, and the US.
The odds for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 remain at 0.1% YES, unchanged from yesterday and a week ago. Face value trades run at $218,714 daily, but actual USDC volume at just $328 suggests almost no real money behind that outcome in April. Bitcoin $150,000 is priced as extreme tail risk.
BlackRock’s $900 million buy is direct institutional positioning ahead of possible further escalation in the Middle East. At 76¢, buying YES on Bitcoin reaching $80,000 pays $1, a 1.32x return. That bet requires continued geopolitical tension driving demand for Bitcoin as a safe haven.
Watch for new developments in Middle East tensions, particularly involving Iran and Israel. Additional purchases by BlackRock or other large institutional buyers could push odds higher.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 76.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
