BlackRock has accumulated $1.34 billion in Bitcoin over the last eight days, including a $284 million purchase yesterday. Bitcoin above $62,000 on April 17 sits at 99.9% YES, with institutional demand driven partly by hedging against geopolitical instability.
The April 17 market shows a 99.9% YES probability of Bitcoin staying above $62,000, with similar levels for April 18. The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching between $78,000 and $80,000 by April 15 hit 100% YES, up from 20% just a week ago.
Actual USDC traded for April 18 markets is $89,134, with face value at $89,387. Order book depth shows thick buying pressure maintaining these high odds. Price moves have been stable, with no notable single-candle spikes in the last 24 hours, consistent with steady institutional buying rather than speculative bursts.
BlackRock’s continued accumulation coincides with ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions, where Bitcoin is being treated as a geopolitical hedge. Traders buying YES at 100¢ are pricing in sustained or increasing Bitcoin levels. Reversing this momentum would likely require significant geopolitical de-escalation or a major market shock.
Watch for statements from Jerome Powell or developments in U.S.-Iran relations, as either could introduce volatility. Shifts in BlackRock’s buying strategy or significant ETF inflows and outflows would also move these markets.
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Bitcoin Above On April 17| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
