Bitcoin’s $80,000 bull bet just took over the market

Whales and options traders are betting on a massive BTC reversal toward $80,000 as a fragile Iran ceasefire fuels hopes for a supply squeeze and a breakout.

What to know:

• Sentiment flips bullish as the $80,000 call becomes the most popular trade on Deribit.
• Whale accumulation is rising, with wallets holding 10k+ BTC seeing rare net inflows.
• A fragile Iran ceasefire has cooled oil prices, fueling hopes for Fed rate cuts.
• BTC is testing a major trendline; a breakout could trigger a rally toward $100,000 by June.

Sentiment in the bitcoin BTC$71,152.81 market appears to have flipped after a long time, suggesting an investor positioning for a potential rally to $80,000.

On Deribit, which accounts for a majority share of the multi-billion dollar global crypto options market, the $80,000 call — a derivatives bet that prices will rise beyond that level — has emerged as the most popular trade. It has overtaken the $60,000 put, which dominated positioning in recent months as prices declined.

As of writing, open interest at the $80,000 strike stands at over $1.6 billion, with each contract representing one bitcoin, according to Deribit data. The $60,000 put has an open interest of $1.41 billion.

BTC has already rebounded above $70,000 from early-week lows near $67,000, supported in part by a temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran that weighed on oil prices. Analysts say continued weakness in oil could help ease inflation concerns, potentially strengthening the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts — a backdrop that tends to support risk assets, including bitcoin.

On-chain data offers some additional supports the bullish case.

“For only the second week in 2026, Bitcoin wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC have recorded net inflows. This points to whale accumulation rather than ETF-driven demand. If sustained, it raises the likelihood of a supply squeeze that could push Bitcoin toward the $75,000–$80,000 range,” said Paul Howard, senior director at crypto liquidity provider Wincent.

Separately, analysts at 21Shares see scope for further upside, with a potential move toward $100,000 by the end of June under favorable conditions.

“Over the past month, we’ve seen more than $1.5 billion in net inflows into BTC ETFs, alongside an increase in holdings by larger investors of around 6% since the start of the year — pointing to continued demand from more sophisticated participants,” said Matt Mena, crypto research strategist at 21Shares. “If geopolitical tensions ease and regulatory clarity improves, a move toward $100,000 by the end of Q2 cannot be ruled out."

Still, risks remain. The ceasefire is fragile, and any renewed escalation could send oil prices higher again, potentially dampening risk appetite and capping bitcoin’s gains.

Later today, the U.S. fourth-quarter GDP data is due. While the backward-looking release may have limited immediate impact, a significant surprise in either direction could still trigger short-term volatility. Stay alert!

What's trending

• Trump vows to keep US troops in Persian Gulf before Iran talks (Bloomberg): As both sides accused each other of violating the truce, Trump vowed to keep U.S. troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran that are planned to firm up a fragile ceasefire.
• Everyone’s awaiting U.S. inflation figures, but bitcoin traders couldn’t care less (CoinDesk): The latest U.S. inflation report for March, due Friday, is seen as a key indicator by several observers, given the backdrop of the Iran war and its inflationary impact. Yet, the latest BTC market activity shows that traders couldn’t care less.
• 'NATO in grave danger after Iran war,' former US NATO ambassador says (euronews): Former US ambassador to NATO, Ivo Daalder, said repeated threats by Trump to withdraw from NATO and other concerning confrontations, have created the ‘worst crisis’ the alliance has ever faced.
• Inflation data, Iran talks: What to watch for the rest of the week (The Wall Street Journal): After Wednesday's big stock-market rally, investors will watch if the U.S.-Iran ceasefire holds and await inflation data updates, Q4 GDP estimates, and new data on consumer sentiment.

Today's signal

The chart shows bitcoin's daily price swings in candlestick format since October 2025. It also has a yellow trendline drawn off the record high of over $126,000 in October represents the brutal bear market.

As of writing, BTC's price traded close to that trendline resistance, a make or break level.

A decisive breakout above the trendline – ideally on strong volume and sustained follow-through – would mean the downtrend has likely tun its course. That could open the door for a broader bullish trend reversal, with scope for a move toward the $75,000–$80,000 region initially, and potentially higher if momentum builds.

On the other hand, a rejection at the trendline would reinforce it as a valid resistance level, suggesting continuation of the bear market. This would raise the risk of another pullback toward recent support levels, potentially ito $65,000 or lower.

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

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