Bitcoin tends to outperform gold and stocks after global shocks, Mercado Bitcoin finds

The study analyzed 60-day windows after economic or geopolitical shocks and found that Bitcoin posted stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500 in each period.

What to know:

• A study by Mercado Bitcoin found that bitcoin tends to outperform traditional safe-haven assets like gold in the 2 months following major global crises.
• The study analyzed 60-day windows after economic or geopolitical shocks and found that bitcoin posted stronger returns than gold and the S&P 500 in each period.
• Despite its volatility, bitcoin has consistently bounced back after crises and has been the best-performing asset of the past decade, according to the study's author, Rony Szuster.

Bitcoin BTC$67,292.40 tends to outperform traditional safe haven assets like gold in the two months following major global crises, according to new analysis from Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin.

The study, led by Rony Szuster, head of research at the Latin American crypto platform, examined 60-day windows after economic or geopolitical shocks such as the COVID-19 outbreak and U.S. tariff escalations. Bitcoin posted stronger returns than both gold and the S&P 500 in each of the periods analyzed.

In April last year, after the Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs, the price of bitcoin jumped 24% over the following 60 days. Gold rose 8%, and the S&P 500 gained 4%, the firm found.

A similar pattern emerged at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, when BTC rose 21%, while the other assets trailed.

Szuster cautioned that judging bitcoin’s performance too soon after a crisis can be misleading.

“It’s like watching the first few minutes of a movie and thinking you already know how it ends,” he said. “In moments like this, investors sell positions to reduce risk or raise cash, and even defensive assets can fall.”

That happens as investors scramble for liquidity, yet bitcoin has consistently bounced back, the firm found. The pattern appears to be repeating in the current U.S.-Iran conflict, where bitcoin is the only one of the three assets in positive territory so far, according to Szuster.

Data backs this up. Since the war started, bitcoin has risen by more than 2.2%, from around $65,800 to $67,300 at the time of writing. Gold, the traditional safe haven, has meanwhile dropped around 11%, while the S&P lost 4.4% of its value in the index’s steepest monthly drop since 2022.

Despite its volatility, bitcoin was the best-performing asset over the past decade, he added.

Read more: Bitcoin's recent crash to $60,000 warned stocks first – now they're following

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