Bitcoin spot ETF net inflows reached $11.84 million on April 21, marking six consecutive days of inflows. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April sits at 60.5% YES, up from 44% yesterday.
The jump in odds follows BlackRock’s consistent buying through its IBIT ETF and Iran’s announcement of an open Strait of Hormuz under a ceasefire agreement. The geopolitical de-escalation has contributed to Bitcoin’s rally above $78,000. The contract for Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in April remains at 0.1% YES.
The $80,000 sub-market has actual USDC volume at $105,235 per day. It takes $24,792 to move this market by 5 percentage points, which points to solid liquidity. The $150,000 market is thin by comparison, with only $328 in actual daily USDC traded and a lower barrier to movement. The largest single price move in the last 24 hours was a 5-point spike at 8:48 AM, from 46% to 50% YES.
Six straight days of ETF inflows combined with a 16.5-point jump in odds suggest the move is tied to geopolitical stabilization rather than macro shifts. Buying YES at 60.5¢ pays $1 on resolution for a 1.65x return. Whether these odds hold depends on continued diplomatic stability and whether ETF inflows keep up.
Watch for shifts in US-Iran relations and any institutional moves from BlackRock or MicroStrategy, both of which could push Bitcoin’s price closer to or further from the $80,000 line before April ends.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $80,000 | 60.5% | 0.0¢ | $354K | Trade → |
| $150,000 | 0.1% | 0.0¢ | $140K | Trade → |
