Bitcoin sellers stay quiet as losses peak at 15% – What this means for BTC

Bitcoin holders have begun showing evident signs of heightened conviction in the asset as their supply dynamics shift. The asset, with a market capitalization of $1.59 trillion, has continued to hover between the $79,000 and $81,000 range without a decisive break in either direction over recent weeks. This change in momentum among long-term holders could prove defining for the asset's next move. Supply momentum spikes into the top 1% since 2017 The long-term holder momentum indicator, which tracks the supply of Bitcoin [BTC] held by this group, has recorded a major spike. Long-term holders are defined as wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days without moving their coins. According to data from Alphractal, the recent upswing in momentum places it among the top 1% of surges recorded since 2017. Historically, sudden shifts of this nature have driven prices into either a consolidation phase or a significant surge. The latter appears the more probable outcome here, as an increase in the supply held by long-term investors reduces the available float in the market. With demand for Bitcoin gradually rising, tightening supply dynamics could improve the conditions for a bullish price scenario. Long-term holders show no intent to sell While the data points to a surge in supply held by long-term holders, examining the sentiment within this group adds important context. The Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which tracks whether long-term holders have moved their coins for potential selling based on a binary reading of 1 or 0, shows no significant distribution taking place. A reading of 1 indicates notable coin movement, while a reading of 0 signals minimal activity. CryptoQuant data shows the long-term holder Binary CDD has remained at zero, meaning there has been minimal movement of Bitcoin toward exchanges for selling. The LTH-STH Spent Output Profit Ratio tracks whether long-term holders or short-term holders are driving the profits being realized in the market. A higher reading typically implies long-term holders are taking profit, but the metric has continued to decline, pointing to short-term holders driving the bulk of Bitcoin sales in the market over the past day. At the time of writing, CoinGlass data shows total Bitcoin sold amounted to $1.89 billion as of the 13th of May, with press-time sales reaching $541 million. Yet net inflow readings across both days suggest buyers remain in control. AMBCrypto flags temporary market stress Compared to previous bear market cycles, long-term holders are at their calmest phase on record. An AMBCrypto analysis previously described the current conditions as a “temporary market stress.” Relative unrealized losses have peaked at 15%, a significantly contained reading compared to the 2015, 2019, and 2022 bear cycles, where the same metric surged to extremes above 75%. While this positions Bitcoin as structurally sound and sets the conditions for a potential bullish rebound, short-term market activity remains a key variable in shaping near-term sentiment. Final Summary Bitcoin long-term holder supply momentum has spiked into the top 1% of surges recorded since 2017, reflecting a significant accumulation shift. Long-term holders show minimal selling activity, with relative unrealized losses peaking at just 15% compared to levels above 75% in previous bear cycles.