Digital asset investment products took in $1.1 billion for the week ending April 10, 2026, following tentative ceasefire developments in Iran and softer-than-expected U.S. CPI data. Bitcoin prediction markets on Polymarket have shifted accordingly.
Market reaction
The influx has pushed Bitcoin price expectations higher. Markets pricing Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 are less likely, reflecting a 10% expected move toward bullish sentiment. Bitcoin price predictions for April sit at 100% YES, meaning traders expect Bitcoin to hold a high range. The geopolitical lull and favorable CPI print together account for the shift.
The odds of Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by June 30, 2026, remain at only 3% YES. But the term structure steepens from there: 10% YES by September 30 and 18% YES by year-end. Traders are pricing in a second-half catalyst, whether from continued ETF inflows or further geopolitical stability.
Liquidity is thin. Total USDC traded across all sub-markets in the past 24 hours is just $3,642. It takes $1,805 to move the June 30 market by 5 points, which means a single motivated trader could meaningfully reprice the contract.
Why it matters
The combination of easing tensions and soft inflation data has revived risk appetite in digital assets. At 22¢, a YES share in the April market pays $1 if Bitcoin hits the target, a 4.5x return. That bet requires continued geopolitical calm and no hawkish surprises from the Fed.
What to watch
Upcoming FOMC communications and any changes in the Iran ceasefire status. The next likely catalyst is ETF flow data from BlackRock or Fidelity, given their outsized share of recent inflows.
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Bitcoin Price On April 15| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 2.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
